|Iran Macroeconomic Indicators|
|Publication Date: May 06, 2017|
*Please note that except for crude oil, all data are based on Shamsi months, which ends around 20th day of the respective western month. Month's numbers for these data are converted to the closest western month only for convenience
Inflation and Exchange Rate
Continuing increasing trend in the last eight months, the monthly inflation settled to 1.7 percent on 20 Apr 2017 which is the highest level during the previous 28 months. Also, the y-o-y inflation reached 9.4 percent for the fourth consecutive months which is the highest level in the past 15 months. Following decreasing trend during the previous 41 months, the yearly inflation increased by 0.1 percent for the first time to settle at 6.9 percent. Given this trends to continue, it is expected that the yearly inflation will increase.
The interest rate of government bonds as an indicator of “interest rate” has declined from 24 to 22 percent during the previous two months due to lack of issuance of new ones. Providing no issuance of new bonds, it is expected that the rates will be stable. Otherwise, it is expected that the rates will return to the previous ones.
The number of residential apartments traded were 5384 units in the last month (ended on 20 Apr) which is 8.5 percent less that the similar period of last year. The average price also decreased for the first time since 10 months ago. The reason is that the people take a precaution before the presidential election. This is while the trading volumes as well as the average prices have increased during the last fiscal year. If the President Rohani will be elected again, it is expected that these figures return to the last ones. Otherwise, we must look forward for the new situation.
The trade balance was positive in the first month of Iranian calendar year as of previous five years because of decreased import following Nowruz. This is while 9 percent drop in export as well as 19 percent increase in import triggered the trade balance to decrease from 1 billion dollars in last Apr to 375 million dollars in current Apr. it appears that the trade balance propels to negative domain because of increasing trend of import following economic improvement, and decreasing trend of export following drop in commodity prices as well as stability in foreign exchange rate.
Crude oil export data are estimates
Assets' Returns (1 Year, Trailing)
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